With the 2025 Academy Awards approaching, the BuzzMeter panel of veteran film journalists has made its final predictions for who will take home the gold on March 2. This year’s awards season has been unpredictable, with shifting frontrunners and surprising upsets. Now, our experts weigh in on who they believe will win in ten major categories.
Best Picture:
- Anora
- Conclave
- The Brutalist
- A Complete Unknown
- Wicked
- Emilia Pérez
- The Substance
- Dune: Part Two
- I’m Still Here
- Nickel Boys
The race for Best Picture has been one of the most volatile in recent memory, but Anora has emerged as the frontrunner. The film dominated major guild awards, taking home wins from the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and Writers Guild—historically strong indicators of Oscar success.
Conclave and The Brutalist remain strong contenders, with Conclave earning major recognition at BAFTA and The Brutalist maintaining critical acclaim. Meanwhile, the high-profile Wicked has the box office numbers to back up its case, though musicals have struggled to clinch Best Picture in recent years.
Despite early awards buzz, Emilia Pérez has lost momentum due to controversy, and Dune: Part Two could face genre bias from voters. Still, with multiple films having strong cases, this remains an unusually open race.
Best Director:
- Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
- Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
- Sean Baker (Anora)
- James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
- Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
Brady Corbet has emerged as the clear frontrunner for Best Director. His long-gestating The Brutalist—a sweeping, deeply personal epic—has been praised for its ambition and visual storytelling.
Sean Baker’s Anora has dominated the awards circuit, but its grounded, character-driven style may not be seen as “big” enough to win Best Director. Meanwhile, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez and James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown bring impressive technical achievements to the table but face stiff competition. Coralie Fargeat, whose feminist horror satire The Substance was a surprise box office hit, could pull off an upset if voters reward bold, boundary-pushing filmmaking.
Best Actress:
- Demi Moore (The Substance)
- Mikey Madison (Anora)
- Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
- Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)
- Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
Demi Moore has transformed into the undeniable favorite, with her performance in The Substance earning widespread acclaim. Once considered an outsider in the race, Moore solidified her frontrunner status after a powerful Golden Globe speech and a career-defining performance.
Mikey Madison (Anora) and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) offer strong alternatives, while Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) makes history as the first trans woman nominated in the category. Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) also presents a compelling narrative, being the second Brazilian performer ever nominated, following her mother Fernanda Montenegro. However, Moore’s momentum makes her the safest bet.
Best Actor:
- Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
- Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
- Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
- Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
- Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Adrien Brody is now the consensus pick, with his intense portrayal in The Brutalist drawing comparisons to his Oscar-winning role in The Pianist. He’s the only past winner in the category, which could give him an edge with voters.
Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) remain major threats, with Chalamet’s live-sung portrayal of Bob Dylan earning high praise. Fiennes, long overdue for an Oscar, delivers a career-best performance that could make him a dark horse contender. Meanwhile, Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) and Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) round out a highly competitive category.
Best Supporting Actress:
- Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
- Ariana Grande (Wicked)
- Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
- Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
- Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Zoe Saldaña has led this category from the start, with her performance in Emilia Pérez hailed as a career highlight. Even as the film has encountered setbacks, her momentum remains strong.
Ariana Grande’s scene-stealing role in Wicked makes her a legitimate contender, while Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) and Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) have earned critical praise. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) rounds out the field, but Saldaña appears to be the clear favorite.
Best Supporting Actor:
- Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
- Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
- Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
- Yura Borisov (Anora)
- Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Kieran Culkin is sweeping through awards season, making him the overwhelming favorite for Best Supporting Actor. His performance in A Real Pain has been widely praised for its humor and depth, making this his award to lose.
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) and Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) provide strong competition, while Yura Borisov (Anora) and Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) round out the category. However, Culkin’s combination of critical acclaim and industry love makes him the safest bet.